🔍 Technical Observations:

1. Current Price Action

• Current Price: ~$117,468

• Last Close: Slightly negative (-0.12%)

• Price has rejected from the recent high (~$124K) and is undergoing a correction.

• Currently trading near the 23.6% Fib zone of the recent rally (assumed from pattern behavior).

2. Volume Profile (Visible Range)

• POC (Point of Control) at $83,641 – shows strong historical volume support.

• Heavy volume node also around $110K–$112K, acting as potential intermediate support.

3. Support Levels

• 116,242 USDT: Immediate support (from recent consolidation area).

• 111,741 USDT: Stronger support – previous breakout zone.

• 106,437 USDT: MA support zone.

• 99,291 USDT: 200 EMA – key long-term support.

• 83,641 USDT (POC): Major historical support.

4. Resistance Zones

• 120,000–124,000 USDT: Local top zone and potential double-top risk.

• Strong psychological resistance near $125K.

5. TD Sequential Indicator

• The chart has TD Sequential indicators:

  • Recent TD Sell 9 and 13 triggered at the top (~$124K), indicating a potential reversal/correction.

  • Countdown restarting (currently at red 3), indicating short-term weakness.

6. Trendlines & Patterns

• Previous descending triangle breakout (Mar-Apr) confirmed bullish structure.

• Elliott Wave structure visible – completed wave 5 with corrective wave A-B-C likely ongoing.

• V-shaped recovery in March shows strong buying interest around $61K–$70K.

7. Moving Averages

• Price above all major moving averages.

• 50 EMA support is near ~$111–113K range.

• 200 EMA resting at ~$99.2K – critical support for long-term trend watchers.

⚖️ Sentiment & Strategy Suggestion

✅ Possible Scenarios

Bullish Case

• Bounce from $111K–113K zone, reclaim $120K, and attempt breakout over $124K.

• Breakout target: $130K–134K, extended wave 5 or new bullish impulse.

Bearish Case

• Breakdown below $111K, next support near $106K and then $99K (200 EMA).

• Extended sell-off to POC at $83.6K possible if macro sentiment deteriorates.

📉 Elliott Wave Interpretation

✅ Completed Wave Count (Nov 2024 – July 2025):

We appear to have completed a 5-wave impulsive structure:

• Wave 1: ~61K → 87K

• Wave 2: Correction to ~70K

• Wave 3: Extended rally to ~117K

• Wave 4: Sideways/corrective to ~104K

• Wave 5: Top at ~124K

This is likely the completion of a larger wave (1 or 3) of a higher degree.

🔁 Now Entering: Corrective Phase (A-B-C likely in play)

🔻 Wave A:

• Already may be unfolding: Top at $124K, now down to ~$117K

• If confirmed, expect it to extend to $110K–$113K

🔄 Wave B:

• Relief rally possible after A ends (~$113K area)

• Likely bounce back to $119K–$121K (lower high)

🔻 Wave C:

• Final correction leg

• Potential target zones:

  • Strong support zone: $99K (200 EMA)

  • Worst-case: POC at $83,641

  • Fibonacci retracement targets:

    • 38.2% = ~$104K

    • 50% = ~$93K

    • 61.8% = ~$83K (aligns with POC)

🔮 Forecast Summary:

🎯 Key Support Zones

• $116K–117K: Immediate support

• $110K–113K: Major intermediate support

• $99K (200 EMA): Must-hold for long-term uptrend

• $83.6K (POC): Worst-case full reset support